Epsom Derby Trends

What can we learn from the previous 11 runnings of the Derby?

Seven of the last 12 winners were trained by Aidan O’Brien – and he saddles the current favourite, City of Troy, who is looking to bounce back from a disappointment run in the 2000 Guineas.

Every past winner of the race had an overall rating above 107, with 10 out of the 12 being rated 109 or above. Lower drawers tend to struggle, with 10 out of the last 12 previous winners coming from stall 7 or higher. Favourite City of Troy is drawn in stall 1, with stable-mate and second favourite Los Angeles, coming from stall 4.

Course form is not that important, given none of the previous winners had a run at the track.

Favourites have a slightly mixed record in the race, with four of the last 12 winners. That said, seven of the last 12 winners were in the top 3 in the betting.

Nine out of the last 12 winners had a win in a Group 1-3 race. This is a positive for the market principles, such as City of Troy, Los Angeles and Ancient Wisdom but a negative for Ambiente Friendly and Dancing Gemini.

11 out of the last 12 winners ran in the last 35 days, which is a negative for horses such as Deira Mile, Bellum Justum, Voyage, Macduff and Dallas Star.

Eight out of the last 12 winners had a run between 10 to 12 furlongs, with 6 recording a win over this distance.

Ten out of the last 12 winners never wore any headgear, with the two others wearing cheekpieces.

What do you predict for this years race?