Today's Tips

Professional tipster Ben Merritt gives his thoughts on today's racing...

2.15 Sandown - ALCARATH 5/1 (NAP)

ALCARATH is up against a couple here that could be anything. KOKBASTAU looks a very smart horse, but he's been hit with a huge hike following two facile wins on the All Weather. He might be a Group horse in a handicap here, but he's without a win on turf and he's dropping 2f in trip against some speedier, more battle hardened horses. MY LOVE IS KING probably has the best form and looks the most attractively handicapped, following a narrow loss to Maltese Cross, off level weights, at the start of the season. However, he was useless at Ascot last time out, hasn't been seen since and lines up here with a new bit of headgear, so it's impossible to know what to expect. ALCARATH has been off a similar time, but he'd have been looking to avoid the dry ground and returns, with rain forecast, at a time when his yard are flying. He went into the tracker at the start of the year, when staying on 5th in a decent Newmarket race, and has since run two good races in defeat. The latter of which came here, so we know this track wont be an issue, and the form of that race is very strong too. In truth, he should have won that race last time out, but was given a poor ride by Rossa Ryan who just let the winner get away from him up the rail. Oisin Murphy is booked today, which looks significant given that Alan King has only used him once in the last 12 months, on a winner.

2.20 Beverley - NORTHERN BRAVE 7/1 (Next Best)

‌With Beverley having been hit by a fair bit of rain on Thursday, more in the forecast between now and race time, the track ought to be riding on the slow side. With that, conditions should be perfect for NORTHERN BRAVE who should come on a bundle for his most recent 2nd. That run came after being gelded and, given that Michael Dods strike rate with his newly gelded runners is 6%, you can assume that he hadn't done a great deal of work prior to that race. However, the strike rate 2nd time out is a significantly higher 24%, it rises to 27% when that horse placed last time out (this lad was 2nd), and its an even better 48% when theyre running at stiff tracks. Granted all that, I think a big run is on the cards for this horse, who has always promised to be a fair bit better than average and it looks like the penny is finally beginning to drop over these longer trips. He's a winner on heavy ground, he's bred to be best over this trip and the yard are going well too. Conor Beasley is here for the ride and his handicap mark looks a very workable one.

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